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الرئيسية » مدونات الشرق » حسن نافعة يكتب : ترامب سيسقط حتماً

حسن نافعة يكتب : ترامب سيسقط حتماً

يجمع معظم المراقبين على أن دونالد ترامب سيكون رئيساً سيئاً ومزعجاً وسيشكل خطورة حقيقية ليس فقط على الدول والشعوب الأخرى وإنما أيضاً على الولايات المتحدة نفسها وعلى الشعب الأميركي الذي اختاره. ومع ذلك يرى فريق من المراقبين أن ترامب قد لا يكون بالضرورة الرئيس الأسوأ في تاريخ الولايات المتحدة الذي لم يخلُ من رؤساء لا يقلون عنه جهلاً أو صلفاً، ويؤمنون في الوقت نفسه بأنه يصعب على أي رئيس أميركي، مهما كانت عيوبه أو مزاياه، أن يغرد منفرداً خارج سرب المؤسسات والأجهزة المسؤولة عن إدارة الدولة الأميركية، وأن هامش الحركة المتاحة له كرئيس لهذه الدولة يرتبط عضوياً بقدرته على الحفاظ على الحد الأدنى من توافق مؤسساتها النافذة، وإلا دخل في مأزق لا فكاك منه. غير أني أشك كثيراً في صحة هذا الطرح، الذي أعتقد أنه يحتاج إلى نقاش أكثر عمقاً في ضوء ما يتمتع به الرئيس الأميركي من صلاحيات واسعة في نظام رئاسي ترجح فيه كفة الرئيس، الذي يعد القائد والمحرك الحقيقي لمؤسسات يفترض أن تلتزم قواعد وتقاليد الممارسة الديموقراطية.

سبق أن وقع اختيار الشعب الأميركي على جورج دبليو بوش ليصبح سيداً للبيت الأبيض، في انتخابات العام 2000 التي تشابهت إلى حد كبير مع الانتخابات التي فاز فيها دونالد ترامب، حيث لم يتمكن الرئيس الفائز في كليهما من الحصول على غالبية في التصويت الشعبي، على رغم حصوله على غالبية أصوات المجمع الانتخابي التي يعتد بها وحدها في نظام انتخابي يرى كثيرون أنه يحتاج إلى تصحيح. وأياً كان الأمر فقد كان لافتاً أن أكثر الرؤساء تطرفاً في التاريخ الأميركي وصلوا إلى البيت الأبيض على رغم أنف غالبية الناخبين والمواطنين. ومع ذلك فالفرق شاسع بين التيار الذي أوصل بوش الابن والتيار الذي أوصل ترامب إلى قمة هرم السلطة، على رغم ما يجمعهما من تطرف. فبوش الابن وصل إلى البيت الأبيض بفعل النفوذ المتنامي لتيار متطرف برز من داخل المؤسسة الحاكمة، هو تيار المحافظين الجدد، الذي كان يرى أن الولايات المتحدة أصبحت الدولة الأولى والأحق بإدارة النظام العالمي منفردة، بعد تفكك وانهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي، خصوصاً أنها هي التي ساهمت بالنصيب الأكبر في ترسيخ دعائم النظام الليبرالي بجناحيه الاقتصادي والسياسي، أي الرأسمالي والديموقراطي، وهو نظام أثبت كفاءته وتفوقه على الأنظمة الأخرى، بما فيها النظام الاشتراكي الذي تبناه الاتحاد السوفياتي، ومن ثم يتعين أن يسود العالم تحت الحماية المنفردة للولايات المتحدة، ولضمان أن يظل القرن الواحد والعشرون قرناً أميركياً خالصاً مثلما كان القرن العشرون. كما رأى هذا التيار في الوقت نفسه أن الحقبة التي أمضاها الرئيس كلينتون في البيت الأبيض أضاعت على الولايات المتحدة فرصاً ثمينة للتمكين لهيمنتها المنفردة، ولفرض نظامها القيمي على العالم أجمع، حتى لو تطلب الأمر استخدام القوة المسلحة. كانت تقارير صحافية عدة أشارت إلى أن الرئيس بوش الابن وجد على مكتبه فور دخوله البيت الأبيض ملفاً يحتوي على مخطط متكامل لما ينبغي على واشنطن أن تقوم به لتحقيق الأهداف التي حددها اليمين، وكان غزو العراق أحد الأوراق المهمة في هذا الملف. وحين وقعت أحداث 11 أيلول (سبتمبر) عام 2001، أي بعد أقل من عام على وصول بوش إلى البيت الأبيض، لاحت فرصة ذهبية انتظرها المحافظون الجدد للشروع في تنفيذ مخططهم من دون كوابح أو حاجة لوضع مساحيق سياسية من أي نوع. ولم يتردد رئيس الولايات المتحدة، المتحدث باسم هذا التيار، في الكذب على شعبه، مدعياً أن صدام حسين يملك أسلحة دمار شامل ولديه صلات موثقة بتنظيم «القاعدة»، ليبرر حربه غير المشروعة على العراق، التي أودت بحياة مئات الآلاف من أبنائه الأبرياء، وبددت ثرواته وقضت تماماً على مستقبله، ولم يتردد بوش في شن الحرب على العراق من دون إذن أو تصريح مسبق من مجلس الأمن. وكان غريباً أن يقدم الشعب الأميركي على مكافأة هذا الرئيس، بتجديد الثقة له في الانتخابات الرئاسية التالية التي أجريت في تشرين الثاني (نوفمبر) 2004 على رغم تأكده التام وبالأدلة القاطعة من أنه كذب عليه عامداً متعمداً ومارس التضليل والخداع. والأغرب أن النظام العالمي لم يكن وقتها في وضع يتيح له إحالة ملف الرئيس بوش بعد انتهاء ولايته الثانية إلى محكمة الجنايات الدولية أو البحث عن آلية أخرى لمحاكمته على جرائمه.

الأمر يختلف بالنسبة إلى دونالد ترامب، الذي وصل إلى البيت الأبيض بفعل تنامي نفوذ تيار شعبوي يكره المؤسسة الرسمية الأميركية ويعتقد أنها سبب الشرور كلها. ولأن الولايات المتحدة أصبحت بالنسبة الى هذا التيار هي أميركا «البيضاء اللون والمسيحية الديانة»، لم تعد المؤسسة الرسمية الحاكمة تمثلها أو تعبر عنها، وبالتالي لم تستحق أي قدر من الولاء أو الاحترام، كما لا يؤمن هذا التيار كثيراً بقيم النظام الليبرالي، بجناحيه الرأسمالي والديموقراطي، ويعتقد أن العولمة، وهي أعلى مراحل الرأسمالية تطوراً، لم تعد أداة ملائمة لتحقيق المصالح الأميركية، خصوصاً أن آلياتها بدأت تستخدم من جانب الدول والشعوب «الملونة» لغزو الولايات المتحدة ببضائع أرخص ثمناً وببشر ملونين ينتمون إلى ثقافات وقيم غريبة على ثقافة وقيم الرجل الأبيض، التي يفترض، في رأي هذا التيار، أن تحتل المرتبة الأسمى في سلم القيم والحضارات.

لم يكن غريباً، في ظل تنامي نفوذ تيار شعبوي بهذه المواصفات، أن يقع اختيار الشعب الأميركي على بليونير أبيض البشرة فارع الطول وقوي البنية، بعد أن وعدهم بالعمل بأقصى قدر من الحدية لوقف زحف الملونين على القلعة الأميركية البيضاء، ببناء أسوار عالية هنا وعدم منح تأشيرات دخول هناك، ومنع دخول البضائع الأجنبية الرخيصة الثمن التي تتسبب في إغلاق المصانع وزيادة البطالة داخل الولايات المتحدة، بالانسحاب من اتفاقات التجارة الحرة ورفع الرسوم الجمركية الحمائية، وتعهد بالإنسحاب من أي معاهدات أو اتفاقات دولية لا تحقق المصالح الأميركية، فلا صوت بالنسبة اليه يجب أن يعلو فوق صوت القانون الأميركي. ولأن مهمة الكونغرس الأميركي، من وجهة نظره، لا يجب أن تقتصر على سن قوانين تطبق في الولايات المتحدة فقط وإنما تسري على العالم كله، ليس فقط بحكم ما تتمتع به هذه القوانين من سمو وإنما أيضاً بحكم رسالة الولايات المتحدة ومسؤوليتها عن حماية السلم والأمن في العالم وما تتحمله من نفقات وأعباء مالية يعكسها حجم الإسهام الأميركي الضخم في موازنات مختلف المنظمات العالمية، بما فيها موازنة حلف شمال الأطلسي، وما تتكبده القواعد والأساطيل الأميركية المنتشرة باتساع قارات ومحيطات وبحار العالم من نفقات.

كان صخب الانتخابات الأميركية قد شغلني كثيراً طوال العام الماضي، ورحت أتابع بقدر كبير من الذهول صعود المرشح دونالد ترامب، حيث كان تقديري في البداية أنه رجل قد يصلح للقيام بدور المهرج في سيرك، أو لاعب مفتول العضلات في مباريات مصارعة حرة تجمع بين التشويق والإثارة وقادرة على انتزاع الضحكات الممتزجة بمشاعر الانبهار. لكني لم أتصور قط حينئذ أن يصبح سيداً للبيت الأبيض ورئيساً لأقوى دولة في تاريخ البشرية. ومع مرور الوقت تبين لي، بخاصة بعد تمكنه من انتزاع ترشيح الحزب الجمهوري رسمياً رغم أنف النخبة المسيطرة على قيادة الحزب، أن التيار الشعبوي الذي تمكن ترامب من مداعبة أكثر خيالاته وأحلامه جنوحاً، ربما يكون أقوى وأكثر تأثيراً مما اعتقدت في البداية. لذا لم أستبعد فوزه حين اقتربت الانتخابات من خط النهاية. عقب إعلان فوز ترامب، حاول البعض تخفيف وقع الصدمة بالتذكير بأن أغلب الوعود الانتخابية تتبخر عند أول صدام لها مع حقائق لا تتضح أبعادها إلا عند تولي موقع المسؤولية، وبأن النظام الأميركي نظام مؤسسات وليس فردياً، ومن ثم فليس بمقدور أحد، حتى لو كان بمواصفات ترامب، أن يسيطر عليه أو يطوعه لغرائزه العنصرية المكبوتة. غير أن سلوك ترامب منذ ساعاته الأولى في البيت البيض يؤكد أنه رجل مندفع ومغرور، ومن ثم يشكل خطورة حقيقية على الاستقرار العالمي. فهو يعتقد أن بمقدوره استعادة قوة الولايات المتحدة بإضعاف أعدائها، بالضغط على الصين عبر التقرب من تايوان، وبالضغط على إيران من خلال دعم إسرائيل، ويعد باستئصال «الإرهاب الإسلامي» بالتقارب والتنسيق مع روسيا. لكنه لن ينجح لأنه ببساطة يسير في اتجاه معاكس للتاريخ ولم يدرك بعد أن معالجة عورات العولمة تتطلب تقوية المؤسسات الدولية بدلاً من إضعافها، والمزيد من الشراكة مع العالم وليس العزلة عنه ورفع شعار «أميركا أولاً»، وبإيجاد شبكة أمان اجتماعي للدول والشعوب المستضعفة وليس سحق هذه الدول والشعوب أو التعالي عليها وعلى ثقافاتها وحضاراتها.

ترامب حصان خاسر وسيسقط حتماً عاجلاً أم آجلاً. الله وحده يعلم حجم الثمن الذي يتعين على العالم أن يدفعه قبل أن يسقط هذا الرئيس في مزبلة التاريخ.

 

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162 تعليق

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