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الرئيسية » صحافة عالمية » اسرائيل في نظر ترامب.. عبء أم ذخر

اسرائيل في نظر ترامب.. عبء أم ذخر

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بقلم: أودي ديكل

قبل سفر رئيس الوزراء بنيامين نتنياهو الى لقائه المخطط له مع الرئيس الامريكي دونالد ترامب، مارس قادة المستوطنين ومؤيدوهم ضغطا شديدا عليه كي يعرض جدول أعمال جديد: الغاء رؤيا الدولتين، تطبيق خطوات الضم على مناطق ج وبناء مكثف في المستوطنات. وهكذا يأملون بأن يضعوا حدا لكل امكانية تسوية مستقبلية مع الفلسطينيين.

في المؤتمر الصحفي للزعيمين تحدث الرئيس ترامب عن الحاجة الى “صفقة” يتعين على اسرائيل والفلسطينيين أن يتفقوا عليها، ومن ناحيته لا يهمه اذا كانت هذه تقوم على أساس دولتين أو دولة واحدة، على أن يتفق الطرفان على ذلك. كما انه طلب من رئيس الوزراء “تهدئة” زخم البناء في المستوطنات. واختار نتنياهو صيغته السحرية: توسيع مفهوم الامن، والحاجة الى السيطرة الامنية الاسرائيلية في كل المجال غربي نهر الاردن. كما يغطي الامن المشكلة الاساس في نظره، التهديد الايراني، اذا لم تمنع الولايات المتحدة عن آيات الله اقتحام حافة القنبلة النووية، وتمنع النفوذ الايراني السلبي المتعاظم في المحيط القريب لاسرائيل.

يمكن أن نشخص أربعة اهداف اساس لسياسة ادارة ترامب في الشرق الاوسط: 1. التعهد بتصفية داعش. 2. تشديد النهج تجاه ايران. 3. بناء شبكة علاقات مع دول المنطقة على أساس تبادلي (الكلفة – المنفعة). 4. تحسين العلاقات مع اسرائيل.

حاول نتنياهو أن يعدل برقة الميزان وسلم الاولويات الامريكي باتجاه صد ايران دون أن يكون على ترامب ان يتنازل عن التزامه بتصفية داعش. وحتى على فرض أن نتنياهو نجح في الاقناع بمركزية المشكلة الايرانية، لا يزال متوقعة خلافات بين القدس وواشنطن بالنسبة لشكل المواجهة مع طهران. في الموضوع السوري مثلا: اسرائيل تشدد على أن منع تواجد ايران وفروعها في سوريا هو شرط في كل تسوية مستقبلية، وتشهد على ذلك “الخطوط الحمراء” التي وضعتها على تواجد ايران وحزب الله في جنوب سوريا. ليس مؤكدا على الاطلاق أن تضمن الولايات المتحدة المطالب الاسرائيلية في هذا الموضوع، وهناك مؤشرات على أن ترامب سيودع “الملف السوري” في يد روسيا.

تعتمد شبكة العلاقات الامريكية مع إسرائيل على مدى السنين على مدماكين: القيم المشتركة والمصالح الاستراتيجية المشتركة. من ناحية القيم، رغم 50 سنة من السيطرة على الشعب الفلسطيني في الضفة، بقيت اسرائيل ديمقراطية قوية ومستقرة، الوحيدة في الشرق الاوسط، التي تتبنى القيم الغربية. مؤيدو الضم، المعنيون بدفن كل خيار للتسوية مع الفلسطينيين، يمسون عمليا بقيم الديمقراطية (قانون التسوية مثلا). والى جانب ذلك يتواصل التآكل في تأييد يهود الولايات المتحدة، ولا سيما بين الجيل الشاب وفي تأييد الحزبين.

المدماك الاستراتيجي، حتى التسعينيات، يستند الى الاطار المنظم للحرب الباردة وكون اسرائيل في مقدمة ساحة الصراع ضد نفوذ الاتحاد السوفياتي في الشرق الاوسط. في العصر الجديد قلت ذخائر اسرائيل ونشأ نقص بارز في التوازن في العلاقات. فبينما توفر الولايات المتحدة ضمانات سياسية، امنية واقتصادية لوجود اسرائيل، فان هذه لا تنفذ نصيبها في الصفقة، في الموضوع الفلسطيني مثلا. وبينما تحدث نتنياهو بلغة ترامب عن “الصفقة الواسعة” الاقليمية، فإن اسرائيل غير مرغوب فيها كعضو في كل إطار من التحالف الاقليمي – بما في ذلك ذاك الذي تعمل عليه الولايات المتحدة ضد داعش. وذلك، كونها لا تعتبر شرعية في نظر الدول العربية وبالاساس في نظر الشارع العربي، طالما لا يوجد تقدم في حل المشكلة الفلسطينية.

ان سياسة الضم والبناء الى جانب تطبيق الخطوط الحمراء على ايران من شأنها أن تؤدي الى تصعيد في الساحتين الشمالية والفلسطينية. وسيصطدم احتمال التصعيد بحسابات الكلفة – المنفعة لدى ترامب، وبالقيمة الاستراتيجية لاسرائيل – التي ستتحول بالنسبة له من ذخر الى عبء. كل المؤشرات تشهد على انه لن يتردد في حينه في الوقوف ضدها.

 يديعوت  22/2/2017

عميد احتياط ونائب رئيس معهد بحوث الامن القومي

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